Pakistan’s journey in the ICC Champions Trophy 2025 has been marred by two consecutive losses, leaving them at the bottom of Group A with zero points and a dismal net run rate of -1.087.
Despite these setbacks, Pakistan still has a mathematical chance to qualify for the semifinals, albeit a challenging one. Here’s a detailed breakdown of the scenarios that could keep Pakistan in contention:
Pakistan Current Situation
- Points Table: Pakistan is currently last in Group A with no points from two matches. India leads the group with four points, followed by New Zealand with two points from one match.
- Recent Performances: Pakistan lost their opening match to New Zealand by 60 runs and then suffered a comprehensive defeat to India in Dubai.
Pakistan Qualification Scenario
For Pakistan to reach the semifinals, they must rely on a combination of their own performance and favorable results from other matches. Here are the necessary steps:
- Pakistan Must Beat Bangladesh: In their final group-stage match, Pakistan must secure a win against Bangladesh. This victory is crucial but not sufficient on its own; they also need to improve their net run rate significantly.
- Bangladesh Must Beat New Zealand: On February 24, Bangladesh faced New Zealand in Rawalpindi. For Pakistan’s hopes to stay alive, Bangladesh needed to win this match. If New Zealand won, Pakistan’s chances of advancing would be severely diminished.
- India Must Beat New Zealand: In their final group-stage match, India must defeat New Zealand comprehensively. This would ensure that New Zealand ends up with two points from three matches, potentially tying with Pakistan and Bangladesh if both of those teams win their respective matches.
Tied Points Scenario
If all these conditions are met, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and New Zealand could end up tied on two points each.
In such a scenario, the team with the best net run rate would advance to the semifinals alongside India, which is likely to top the group.
Challenges Ahead
- Net Run Rate: Pakistan’s current net run rate is -1.087, the lowest in Group A. They need a significant improvement in this area to have any chance of advancing based on net run rate.
- Dependence on Other Teams: Pakistan’s fate is largely dependent on the outcomes of other matches, making their path to the semifinals uncertain and challenging.
While Pakistan’s chances of reaching the semifinals are slim, they still have a mathematical possibility if they can secure a big win over Bangladesh and other results go in their favor. However, if New Zealand beats Bangladesh, Pakistan’s campaign will likely come to an end.
