South Africa’s recent victory over Pakistan has significantly impacted the qualification scenarios for the World Test Championship (WTC) Final, set to take place in June 2025 at Lord’s.
South Africa secured their spot with a thrilling two-wicket win in Centurion, confirming their position at the top of the WTC standings with a points percentage (PCT) of 66.67.
This leaves India and Australia vying for the second qualification spot, intensifying the competition as both teams prepare for their upcoming matches.
Current Standings and Context
As of now, India sits in third place with a PCT of 55.88, following a draw in their recent Test against Australia.
The ongoing Border-Gavaskar Trophy series is crucial for India’s hopes, as they have only two matches left against Australia in Melbourne and Sydney.
Australia, currently second with a PCT of 58.89, has three matches remaining: two against Sri Lanka and one against India.
Qualification Scenarios for India
India’s path to the WTC Final has become more complex following South Africa’s qualification. Here’s how India can still secure a spot:
- Winning Both Remaining Tests:
- If India wins both the Melbourne and Sydney Tests, they will finish with 140 points and a PCT of approximately 60.53, ensuring their place in the final regardless of other results.
- If India wins both the Melbourne and Sydney Tests, they will finish with 140 points and a PCT of approximately 60.53, ensuring their place in the final regardless of other results.
- Winning One Test and Drawing the Other:
- If India wins one match and draws the other (e.g., winning in Sydney after drawing in Melbourne), they will end up with 130 points and a PCT of 57.01. In this scenario, Australia must not win both of their Tests against Sri Lanka; any loss or draw would help India’s cause.
- If India wins one match and draws the other (e.g., winning in Sydney after drawing in Melbourne), they will end up with 130 points and a PCT of 57.01. In this scenario, Australia must not win both of their Tests against Sri Lanka; any loss or draw would help India’s cause.
- Drawing Both Tests:
- If India draws both matches (1-1 series result), they will finish with 122 points and a PCT of 53.50. For India to qualify in this case, Australia must lose at least one match to Sri Lanka.
- If India draws both matches (1-1 series result), they will finish with 122 points and a PCT of 53.50. For India to qualify in this case, Australia must lose at least one match to Sri Lanka.
- Losing One Test:
- If India loses the Melbourne Test but manages to draw the Sydney Test, they will end with 118 points and a PCT of around 51.76, which would likely eliminate them from contention if Australia performs well against Sri Lanka.
- If India loses the Melbourne Test but manages to draw the Sydney Test, they will end with 118 points and a PCT of around 51.76, which would likely eliminate them from contention if Australia performs well against Sri Lanka.
- Losing Both Tests:
- A series loss (1-3 or 0-4) would see India’s chances collapse entirely, as they would finish with significantly lower points than Australia.
Implications of Australia’s Matches
Australia’s performance against Sri Lanka is critical for India’s qualification hopes:
- If Australia wins both matches against Sri Lanka after drawing or losing to India, they will qualify.
- On the other hand, if Australia loses or draws any match against Sri Lanka while India secures points from their remaining Tests, it could open the door for India’s qualification.
